Historic Heat Wave to Shatter Records in the Northwest Region, Cooler Air to Parade the Rest

By: Planalytics

As we approach a key week of the summer season, businesses are looking forward to favorable conditions to boost demand for summer apparel and consumables. With Canada Day on Thursday, July 1st, and Independence Day on Sunday, July 4th, many are planning for cookouts and fireworks to commemorate the holidays. Outdoor activities are customary, making Independence Day and Canada Day two of the most weather-impacted holidays of the year.

The run-up week will feature a strong, and potentially historic, heat wave across the Northwest region. Markets in this region will see temperatures soaring 25° F to 45° F above normal resulting in substantial lifts to demand for seasonal goods. Conversely, cooler than normal temperatures will gradually spread across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. Showers are possible from the Southwest region to the East Coast throughout the week. Canada temperatures will mimic the U.S. with anomalously hot conditions across western provinces, and a cooler trend in the East. Showers and storms will also track across eastern Canada, while the balance of the country will enjoy drier conditions.

On Canada Day (Thursday, July 1st), there will be a split temperature pattern with a hotter than normal west, and cooler than normal east. The heat in the West will propel temperatures in British Columbia and Alberta 10° F to 15° F above normal and LY. Scattered showers will extend from southern Ontario to the St. Lawrence River Valley for the holiday.

For Independence Day (Sunday, July 4th), patriotic crowds across the western U.S. will experience record hot temperatures during their holiday celebrations. Alternatively, families and friends across the East will enjoy a cooler trend for the holiday. Showers across the Southern Tier and along the East may put firework displays on hold, while those in the West can expect drier conditions to continue for the holiday.

According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), 84% of consumers plan to celebrate Independence Day, which is up from last year’s 76%. The year over year lift is primarily due to more consumers planning to participate in traditional celebrations, such as fireworks and community celebrations, along with travel. The average spend has increased to $81 per consumer, up $5 from 2020.

For reference, Canada Day (07/01/20) was hottest since 2014 and driest since 2018. Independence Day (07/04/20) last year was hottest since 2018 and driest since 2012.